Will You Need a Vaccine Passport?
Plus Connecticut's schedule for universal vaccine eligibility
The speed with which vaccines are being rolled out in Israel, the U.K. and the U.S.1 means that these countries will be the first to decide how to deal with a population that is partially, but far from completely, vaccinated against COVID-19.
This raises the question of whether to treat the vaccinated differently from the unvaccinated in public spaces while the pandemic is ongoing. Israel has already chosen to do so, rolling out a vaccine passport for those who have either been fully vaccinated or who have proof that they had COVID-19 and have recovered.
The country is reopening gyms, cultural and sports events, hotels and swimming pools, event halls and conferences, but only for Israelis with a vaccine passport. For the time being, if you live in Israel and do not have proof of immunity, you will not be able to go to these places.
From a strictly epidemiological standpoint, this is an obvious solution. There are no reasons immunized people can’t interact with each other while the pandemic continues to be fought. But it raises some very real ethical questions. What about individuals who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons? What about those who forego for religious reasons, or just because they don’t trust a brand-new vaccine? These rules aren’t meant as a punishment, but you can certainly see how many people will experience them as such.
These rules have also created an underground business for forged vaccine passports (it’s currently just a QR code), which in turn has caused the government to vow to issue more secure versions of the passports shortly. It’s safe to assume that whatever new system Israel rolls out will create another round of attempted forgeries.
The U.K. is considering similar rules for certain businesses but has not made any official announcements and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that individuals who cannot be vaccinated should not be discriminated against.
U.S. states are highly unlikely to implement any official requirements along these lines, but individuals businesses could conceivably do so for customers. However, without an organized system like vaccine passports in place, businesses would struggle to confirm vaccinations and the risk of lost revenue after such a painful year makes this likely rare in the U.S.
In terms of employment, U.S. employers could conceivably require employees to get vaccinated but there are straightforward ways for employees to get out of it if they desire to. As mentioned, some people medically cannot receive a vaccine, and the Americans with Disabilities Act would bar employers from requiring it for those individuals. Title VII also requires employers to “accommodate an employee’s sincerely held religious beliefs unless doing so causes an undue hardship on the business.” Some states also allow for moral/philosophical objections to vaccines, as well.
Republicans in states have also introduced legislation to bar any business or employer from requiring a COVID vaccine. Combined with the small but unfortunately loud anti-vaccine constituency in the country, most employers will limit themselves to strongly encouraging employees get vaccinated. The one exception could be health care workers whose vaccination status does have a real impact on their work.
Lastly, international travel is one area where you will likely need proof of vaccination at some point, particularly for tourism. European countries have already begun discussing the idea and it seems likely other countries would follow suit. Vaccine requirements for international travel have an extensive history and are still in effect today. Many countries require vaccinations against diseases such as yellow fever or polio before permitting travel.
Fresh off the announcement that vaccine distributions to states will move to 13.5 million doses per week last week, the Biden administration has already announced another increase to 14.5 million doses this week. That’s almost fifty percent higher than the 10 million per week that were going out when Biden was inaugurated.
As you can see from this Bloomberg chart, the projected increase in available doses should mean that there are enough for every eligible American by the beginning of June. Of course, any of the three companies could run into an issue that delays or limits their projected deliveries, but there’s no reason to expect that either.
As we move closer to widespread availability, Connecticut has become the first state in the nation to publish a schedule for the remainder of their vaccine rollout. The state has regularly been among the best for vaccine distribution so it’s no surprise they are the first state to establish when any adult resident will be eligible to be vaccinated.
Their schedule is as follows:
March 1, 2021: Expands to age group 55 to 64
March 22, 2021: Expands to age group 45 to 54
April 12, 2021: Expands to age group 35 to 44
May 3, 2021: Expands to age group 16 to 34
Connecticut is moving to a purely age-based rollout, instead of other essential workers and individuals with medical conditions as most states are and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommended. This has caused some controversy as younger people with medical conditions in the state will have to wait two more months, while their neighboring New York equivalents are eligible now. But Connecticut officials believe this simplified eligibility will allow them to deliver more vaccines into arms sooner than they otherwise would.
The important fact for those of us in other states is that Connecticut will allow any resident 16 or older to receive the vaccine starting May 3rd. That would indicate that other states, even with a different eligibility process, would do the same soon after. There’s certain to be very high demand the first few weeks after a state moves to universal eligibility, but that will flatten out quickly. Sometime in late May or early June, getting a vaccine appointment will become shockingly easy across the country.
Despite our hiccups, the U.S. is far ahead of most countries. Top six countries in doses per 100 people are Israel, Seychelles, the U.A.E., the U.K., Maldives, and the U.S.
The high rates in Israel are for Israeli citizens only, not all residents, especially the Palestinians under their control... This religious apartheid policy (in which Israeli Jews get priority, even in the occupied against International UN resolutions territory will leave large pockets of unvaccinated peoples for many more months...