Czech voters oust billionaire populist Prime Minister
Plus a check-in on states that have redistricted to date
Politics at home: Redistricting Check-in
About half of states have started their redistricting process so far, but only a few have finished. For those states, let’s take a look at what’s changed with their new maps and whether that was a better or worse outcome for Democrats than expected:
Arkansas (GOP controlled): The Arkansas House and Senate passed a map, which the governor has said he will allow to become law without his signature. The new map splits up Pulaski County (Little Rock), the only heavily populated Democratic area of the state. That makes AR-2, which was already a Republican leaning seat, into an uncompetitive one. The other three seats remain safely Republican.
Outcome: Shored up one GOP seat, as expected
Colorado (Commission): Colorado gained a seat and a new redistricting process after voters approved a constitutional amendment removing any role for lawmakers and handing the process to a commission. The state had four Democratic districts and three Republican districts before, and those largely remain, with a new highly competitive seat north of Denver. Given that Biden won the state by 13 points in 2020, a 4D-3R-1Even seat breakdown is less than Democrats hoped for. The Colorado Supreme Court still has to sign off on the map, but is expected to do so.
Outcome: One highly competitive seat created, slightly worse than expected
Indiana (GOP controlled): Similar to Arkansas, the Indiana legislature focused on shoring up the state’s one somewhat competitive district, making IN-5, which covers the area north of Indianapolis, into a safely GOP seat. The good news is that an aggressive gerrymander could have gone after IN-1, a Democratic seat based around Gary, Indiana. The fact that the legislature declined to do so was good news for Democrats in general and current Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) in particular.
Outcome: Shored up one GOP seat, better than expected
Maine (Bipartisan): Maine’s two districts changed very little, with Rep. Jared Golden (D) gaining a small amount of population, making his district slightly less Republican. Golden is still facing a very tough race, but that fraction of a percent could come in handy.
Outcome: No change, as expected
Nebraska (Mostly GOP controlled): Republicans largely control the redistricting process in Nebraska, but Democrats have the ability to filibuster the map, giving them some say in the process. NE-2, which awarded Biden an electoral vote in 2020, was the focus, with Republicans try to break up Douglas County (Omaha). Democrats filibustered the first map, and the parties eventually compromised on a map that kept Douglas County whole, but attached some heavily GOP turf to it to round out the district. The new NE-2 would still have been won by Biden in 2020, but by a narrower margin.
Outcome: Swing seat made slightly more Republican, about as expected
Oregon (Mostly Dem controlled): Similar to Nebraska, Democrats largely control the redistricting process in Oregon, but the GOP has the ability to deny the Oregon House a quorum, which gives them a say. After much back and forth and some disappearing Republicans, a quorum was reached and a map, which adds a sixth seat to the delegation, did pass.1 The map is pretty good for Democrats, shoring up the competitive seats of Reps. Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader and creating a competitive but Dem-leaning new seat stretching from the Portland suburbs to the fast growing city of Bend.
Outcome: Gain of one Dem-leaning seat, slightly better than expected
West Virginia (GOP controlled): With a Congressional delegation made up of three Republicans, there was little partisanship in West Virginia redistricting process. The big question was which two GOP incumbents would be paired together and in the map passed by both chambers, it ended up being Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney. McKinley represents more of the district currently, but Mooney has more cash on hand and is seen as the Trumpier candidate, usually the ticket in modern GOP primaries.
Outcome: Loss of one GOP seat, as expected
I’ll check in again later in the year after another batch of states have finalized their maps.
Politics abroad: Czech voters oust billionaire Prime Minister
Two coalitions, one center-right and one progressive-centrist, combined to defeat incumbent Prime Minister Andrej Babis, a billionaire whose populist turn had alarmed many that he was following in the footsteps of Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban. Babis’ ANO 2011 party won 72 seats, but is sure to be ousted in the new parliament by the 71 seats of the center-right SPOLU and the 37 seats of the progressive-centrist Pirates and Mayors coalition.2 The far-right SPD was the only other party to make it into parliament, winning 20 seats.
Babis’ party was launched in 2012 as vaguely Eurosceptic, an anti-corruption party, but largely acted as a personal vehicle for Babis, whose personal wealth is estimated at $3.5 billion. ANO 2011 rose quickly, leading Babis to become Deputy Prime Minister in 2013 and then Prime Minister after winning the 2017 elections. Both government coalitions had put ANO 2011 in coalition with the center-left Czech Social Democratic Party (who failed to even make it into the new parliament).
While Babis tended to be center-left on economic issues, he became increasingly populist on issues such as immigration and the European Union. He also owns significant media properties in the Czech Republic and has been repeatedly put under investigation for his business dealings. During this election, he even invited Orban, who has cracked down on media freedoms, judicial independence and LGBT rights in Hungary, to campaign with him.
In response, three center right parties formed SPOLU to take on Babis for this election. Similarly, the Czech Pirate Party allied with the Mayors and Independents party to form the Pirates and Mayors alliance. While there is significant ideological diversity both between and within the coalitions, they all agreed on the need to oust Babis. Having successfully done so, Civic Democratic Party leader Petr Fiala (part of the SPOLU coalition) is expected to become the next Prime Minster. It remains to be seen how well these coalitions can govern, though, beyond the anti-Babis spirit that brought them together.
It helped that if new state legislative maps didn’t pass, then the task would have fallen to Democratic Secretary of State Shemia Fagan. State Republicans, far more concerned with these maps than the Congressional ones, took the 1/3rd of a loaf on offer than risk losing everything.
Yes, Pirates and Mayors is a new combination for me too.